The AP-Gfk poll for March 3-8, 2010 shows President Barack Obama with a total approval rating of 53% and a total disapproval rating of 46%. However, as explained by Ed Morrissey over at HotAir, there are some significant caveats to those numbers:
The AP only reaches that conclusion by surveying adults rather than registered or likely voters, which are polls more suited to predicting outcomes for elections. The AP knows this, but apparently couldn’t be bothered to adjust its polling technique to more accurately predict electoral behavior — or wanted to put its finger on the scale without too many people discovering its game.
The partisan gap in this sample is another big reason. While poll after poll shows that gap nearly disappearing, the AP sample has a whopping 11-point advantage for Democrats, 45/34, including independent leaners (page 31). Without the leaners, it’s 33/23. Bear in mind that Obama got elected in November 2008 with a seven-point advantage in the popular vote — and that was with significant Republican crossover voting. The AP’s partisan split at that time was 48/34, 40/24 without leaners.
Rasmussen’s last survey on party affiliation put the gap at 3 points. Deduct 8 points from Obama’s approval rating, and you get somewhere close to Rasmussen’s approval rating for today. If the AP actually believes the analysis above based on their polling, I pity them their wake-up call in November.
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