How Does Obama’s Cratering Approval Rating Compare to Past Presidents?

Over at National Review’s “Corner” blog, Peter Wehner has some interesting observations on President Obama’s precipitous drop in the polls:

My former White House colleague Nicholas Thompson, now vice president at the Tarrance Group, sent out an e-mail analyzing the new Gallup poll that shows President Obama with a 51 percent approval rating — the lowest of his administration. More interestingly, Obama’s approval is down 14 points from his initial rating — tying President Clinton for the biggest drop since the Eisenhower era.

For those interested, here’s how different presidents match up when comparing their initial approval rating with their average approval rating in the August of their first term: Eisenhower +6 (from 68 to 74 percent), Kennedy +4 (from 72 to 76 percent), Nixon +3 (from 59 to 62 percent), Carter -3 (from 66 to 63 percent), Reagan +9 (from 51 to 60 percent), George H. W. Bush +18 (from 51 to 69 percent), Clinton -14 (from 58 to 44 percent), George W. Bush -1 (from 57 to 56 percent), and Obama -14 (from 68 to 54 percent).

Now, a poor first year doesn’t necessarily translate into defeat in a reelection campaign (witness Bill Clinton) — just as a good first year doesn’t necessarily ensure reelection (witness Bush 41). Still, you would rather start well instead of poorly. Clinton — though he won reelection — created the conditions that allowed the GOP to take over the House of Representatives in 1994, for the first time in more than half a century. And whatever future awaits President Obama, he cannot recapture the past six months, when there was an enormous amount of good will for him. He had a chance to reshape the political landscape strongly in the favor of Democrats; instead, he has resuscitated the Republican Party far beyond what most people thought possible.

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